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TIME DECAY
Pedal 1 · Time remaining until expiration
Markets far from expiration have more time for the crowd to be wrong. More runway = higher signal. Normalized over 30 days (720 hrs).
High = lots of time left for you to be right
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SPREAD DRIFT
Pedal 2 · Bid/ask spread width
Wide spread = market makers are uncertain too. Nobody has converged on the right price. Wide spread = edge opportunity.
High = market makers don't know either
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BASELINE DEVIATION
Pedal 3 · Distance from 50¢
Markets near 50¢ are genuinely uncertain — the crowd is split. Near 0 or 100 = high conviction, less mispricing potential. 50¢ = maximum edge.
High = genuinely uncertain outcome, crowd is split
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CATEGORY EFFICIENCY
Pedal 4 · Market type multiplier (0.8–1.2×)
Less analyst coverage = more mispricing. Entertainment and Companies get fewer sophisticated traders; Politics and Economics get many.
INEFFICIENT 1.2×
Entertainment · Companies
EFFICIENT 0.8×
Politics · Economics